As I sit here analyzing the 2019 NBA MVP race, I can't help but draw parallels to that incredible volleyball match between the Japanese wards and the Cool Smashers. Remember when the Japanese team had that commanding eight-point lead in the first frame? That's exactly how Giannis Antetokounmpo looked through the first half of the season - absolutely dominant, building what seemed like an insurmountable advantage. The way the Cool Smashers rallied to force a 21-all deadlock reminds me of James Harden's phenomenal second-half surge, where he basically averaged 40 points for two months straight. I've been covering the NBA for over a decade, and I've never seen anything quite like this two-man race that had everyone divided into camps.
The oddsmakers have been flipping back and forth like spectators at a championship match. When I checked the latest Vegas odds this morning, Giannis was sitting at -150 while Harden hovered around +120. These numbers have shifted dramatically since December, when Giannis was the clear favorite at -300. The Greek Freak's case is built on team success and two-way dominance - the Bucks were on pace for about 60 wins, and his defensive impact metrics were off the charts. From my perspective, what makes Giannis special isn't just his athleticism but his understanding of spacing and angles. I remember watching him dismantle the Philadelphia 76ers single-handedly in March, and thinking this guy plays chess while others play checkers.
Then there's Harden, who put together one of the most impressive offensive seasons I've ever witnessed. His 36.1 points per game average was the highest since Michael Jordan's legendary 1986-87 campaign. The Rockets were 11-14 at one point, and Harden basically carried them to relevance through sheer offensive willpower. I've had debates with colleagues about whether his style is sustainable in the playoffs, but you can't argue with the statistical dominance. His step-back three has revolutionized how perimeter players create space, and defensively, he's improved more than people give him credit for. Still, the memory of that 21-all deadlock in the volleyball match makes me think about how these two superstars have been neck-and-neck despite their different approaches to the game.
Paul George deserves mention here too - his +2500 odds reflect what's been a career year, but honestly, I don't think he has a real shot at overtaking the top two. The advanced metrics love him, particularly his defensive impact, but the narrative just isn't there in the same way. Kawhi Leonard was phenomenal when he played, but his load management and 60 games played make him a dark horse at best. In my experience covering MVP races, voters tend to penalize players who miss significant time unless their impact is truly transcendent.
What fascinates me about this particular race is how it represents two different basketball philosophies. Giannis embodies the idea of team-building and systematic dominance, while Harden represents individual brilliance and offensive innovation. I lean slightly toward Giannis personally - there's something about two-way players that appeals to my basketball sensibilities. The way Reira Miyazaki's quick drop sealed the set for Kobe Shinwa despite the fierce comeback reminds me that sometimes, consistency and fundamental excellence win out over flashy comebacks. Giannis has been that steady force all season, even while Harden's scoring barrage has been historically significant.
The voter demographics will play a crucial role here. Older voters tend to favor team success and all-around games, which helps Giannis. Analytics-minded voters might lean toward Harden's unprecedented offensive metrics. Having spoken to several voters throughout the season, I can tell you this is one of the most divided races in recent memory. The last time I saw this much disagreement was during the 2017 Russell Westbrook versus James Harden debate. This feels even more contentious because both cases are so compelling in different ways.
If I had to place my bet today, I'd go with Giannis by a narrow margin. The team success narrative combined with his improved numbers across the board - 27.7 points, 12.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists - just feels like the complete package. But I wouldn't be shocked if Harden pulls it off, much like how the Cool Smashers nearly stole that set despite the early deficit. The beauty of this race is that both players have compelling cases, and we're essentially debating two different visions of basketball excellence. Whatever the outcome, we're witnessing one of the great MVP debates in NBA history, and sometimes, the debate itself is more interesting than the final result.
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