As I sit here watching the Arkansas State basketball team warm up for their preseason practice, I can't help but feel that familiar mix of excitement and apprehension. Having followed college basketball for over two decades, I've seen championship droughts broken and dynasties built, and something about this current Arkansas State squad gives me that special tingle of anticipation. Last season's remarkable championship run by the Mapua Cardinals, led by the phenomenal Clint Escamis who was adjudged as the Basketball Player of the Year by the press corps, serves as both inspiration and blueprint for what Arkansas State might achieve this year. When the Cardinals ended their heartbreaking 33-year title drought by sweeping the College of Saint Benilde Blazers in the best-of-three finals, it wasn't just a victory—it became a masterclass in how to transform long-suffering programs into champions.
What fascinates me most about Arkansas State's current situation is how perfectly it mirrors Mapua's circumstances before their championship breakthrough. Both programs carried the weight of history—those decades of near-misses and disappointing seasons that can either crush a team's spirit or forge something extraordinary. I've always believed that breaking a championship drought requires more than just talent; it demands a psychological shift that I saw clearly in Escamis and his Cardinals. The way they dominated that best-of-three finals, winning both games by an average of 12.5 points against a Saint Benilde team that had beaten them twice during the regular season, demonstrated that mental toughness championship teams possess. Arkansas State has been building toward this moment for three seasons now, and I'm convinced they have that same championship mentality brewing in their locker room.
Looking at the roster construction, I'm particularly impressed by how the coaching staff has learned from Mapua's blueprint. Much like how Escamis became the undeniable leader for the Cardinals, Arkansas State's senior point guard Marcus Johnson has developed into that same kind of transformative figure. Last season, Johnson averaged 18.7 points and 7.3 assists per game—numbers that closely mirror what Escamis produced during his Player of the Year campaign. But what statistics can't capture is the leadership quality both players exhibit. I've watched Johnson in close games this preseason, and there's that same calm determination I observed in Escamis during Mapua's championship run. When the pressure mounts, certain players simply elevate their game, and Johnson has shown repeatedly that he's one of those special athletes.
The supporting cast matters tremendously in these championship pursuits, and here's where I think Arkansas State might actually have an advantage over last year's Mapua team. While the Cardinals relied heavily on Escamis—and rightly so, given his extraordinary talent—Arkansas State has developed what I consider to be the most balanced starting five in their conference. Their frontcourt combination of sophomore sensation David Miller and transfer student Anthony Rogers gives them a versatility that most teams can't match. Miller's improvement from last season has been remarkable—he's added nearly 4.2 points to his scoring average during preseason exhibitions while maintaining his 58% field goal percentage. Rogers brings that championship experience from his previous program, having been part of two conference championship teams before transferring. This kind of depth reminds me of the 2018 Virginia team that won the national championship after their historic first-round upset—sometimes you need that perfect blend of emerging talent and experienced winners.
What often gets overlooked in championship conversations is the scheduling advantage, and here's where I'll make what might be an unpopular opinion: Arkansas State's relatively soft non-conference schedule is actually a strategic masterpiece rather than a weakness. They've scheduled exactly the right mix of challenging opponents and confidence-building games that should have them peaking at the perfect time. Compare this to Mapua's approach last season—they built momentum through their schedule, and by the time playoffs arrived, they were playing their best basketball. I've seen too many teams exhaust themselves against brutal non-conference slates only to falter when it matters most. Arkansas State's athletic director deserves credit for constructing a schedule that should have them entering conference play with around 12-14 wins and, more importantly, healthy and confident.
The defensive improvements I've observed during preseason have been nothing short of remarkable. Last season, Arkansas State ranked 4th in their conference in defensive efficiency, allowing 1.08 points per possession. Through their first eight preseason games, that number has dropped to 0.94—a massive improvement that signals championship-level commitment. Defense wins championships isn't just a cliché—it's the reality I've seen play out time and again. Mapua's championship run was built on defensive intensity that increased throughout the playoffs, culminating in holding Saint Benilde to just 67.3 points per game in the finals after they had averaged 81.2 during the regular season. Arkansas State appears to be following that same defensive trajectory, and if they maintain this level of commitment, they'll be incredibly difficult to beat in playoff scenarios.
There are legitimate concerns, of course—every potential championship team has them. The bench depth beyond the starting five remains somewhat unproven, and an injury to any of their key players could derail their championship aspirations. But having followed this program through its lean years, what strikes me most is the cultural transformation that's occurred. The expectation of winning has replaced the hope of winning, and that psychological shift is often the final piece in championship puzzles. When I spoke with players after their last preseason game, there was none of the tentative optimism I heard in previous seasons—instead, there was a quiet confidence that reminded me exactly of what I'd observed in Mapua players before their breakthrough.
As the season approaches its critical phase, I find myself more convinced than ever that Arkansas State is positioned to replicate Mapua's magical championship run. The pieces are there—the star power, the defensive identity, the favorable schedule, and most importantly, that championship mentality we so rarely see in programs emerging from lengthy droughts. While nothing is guaranteed in college basketball, the parallels between this Arkansas State team and last season's Mapua Cardinals are too compelling to ignore. Having witnessed numerous championship journeys throughout my career, I recognize the signs when a team is destined for greatness, and everything I've observed suggests Arkansas State basketball is ready to reclaim their glory. The drought ends this season—I'm confident of it.
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